The Khmer Rouge and Statistical Probability

Saloth Sar (Pol Pot) [1925-1998]

I have suggested in my other writings on this subject, that if the bones on display in the museums in Cambodia were analysed through forensic science, it could be proven that many were probably the victims of the illegal US military action carried-out in that country in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Furthermore, it could also be that many of the bones are from bodies that did not die of war injuries. Rejecting (bourgeois) Western sources as being biased against Socialism (and often factually incorrect in their historical accuracy), I am accessing Chinese-language historical texts covering the time of the Democratic People’s Republic of Kampuchea (1975-1979).  

Pol Pot – Military Leader

Although the Khmer Rouge took power at the time of the fall of Saigon (on April 17th 1975), many ordinary Cambodian people did not know who now held power in the capital city of Phnom Penh. As far as they were concerned, the national government was now controlled by a ‘mysterious’ organisation. This was despite the Khmer Rouge now fielding a Revolutionary Army of 200,000 with a membership of the Communist Party of Kampuchea standing at 40,000! Even at the end of 1976 – during the holding of the Fourth National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (an ally of Cambodia at the time), a telegram of congratulations was sent by the Khmer Rouge, but signed as being from the ‘Cambodian Revolutionary Organization’. Indeed, it was not until Pol Pot’s September visit to China (in 1977), that the name of the ‘Khmer Rouge’ was made public for the first time, as being the Communist faction that now controlled Cambodia! (This is despite the fact that Pol Pot had already met Mao Zedong in June, 1975 (two months after supposedly taking power in Cambodia). Mao gave him books written by Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin, which he asked him to study). Although 86 countries from around the world eventually ‘recognised’ the regime of ‘Democratic Kampuchea’, the Khmer Rouge would only allow an exchange of diplomats from 12 of these countries. However, the diplomats of 10 of these countries were not allowed to leave their embassies, except for the diplomats of China and North Korea. These diplomats moved freely around the country and did not witness any large or small-scale massacres as reported by the Western media (which had already been expelled from the country). On April 14th, 1976, the Democratic People’s Republic of Kampuchea convened the first National People’s Congress. On October 17th, 1977 Pol Pot announced that it was the 17th Anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of Kampuchea!

Pol Pot (1998)

The capital city of Phnom Penh was emptied of its population by the Khmer Rouge soon after the Khmer Rouge took control on April 17th, 1975 in an evacuation that was supposed to take three-days but in fact lasted three years! There are two reasons for this action. The American CIA were mustering arms, explosives and money in the city, and were busy recruiting Cambodians for a rightwing counter-Revolution. The Americans believed that if they held the only real city in Cambodia, then they would be in-charge of the entire country! Pol Pot countered this threat by using the military strategy of Mao Zedong Thought and moved the Cambodian people out of harm’s way. This sacrificed space for time, and cut the recruitment base from under the feet of the Americans. This is how Pol Pot defeated the Americans in one movement. As the capitalists hate losing, they conflated this superb victory with Pol Pot’s writings about how capitalist architecture ‘poisons’ the minds of the peasantry and the workers! (This latter example is the second reason Pol Pot evacuated the city).  

Pol Pot Meets Mao Zedong in China (21.6.1975)

Due to a change of policy and allegiance within the Communist Party of Vietnam, the Vietnamese People’s Army invaded Cambodia during late December, 1978 and caused an immediate retreat of the Khmer Rouge Forces. The Khmer Rouge were defeated in around two weeks with the main battles being over by January 7th, 1979. Pol Pot had called for a five-year plan of military resistance, but the Khmer Rouge Army fell apart very quickly – losing around 16,000 casualties in just fourteen days – with around 20,000 soldiers and civilians retreating with him toward the jungles of the north-east (near the border with Thailand).  

Chinese-Language Book of Pol Pot

The question is this: the Khmer Rouge where only realistically in power from April 1975 – December, 1978 – just two years and eight months in reality. Is it plausible to assert that in these thirty-two months the poverty-stricken Khmer Rouge were willing and able to kill between 300,000 to 3 million people?  

Example 1. 300,000 ÷ 32 months = 9,375 per month or 312.5 deaths per day. 

Example 2. 3 million ÷ 32 months = 93,750 per month or 3,125 deaths per day.  

Note: The Khmer Rouge state that between 1975 – 1977, there were around 14,000 deaths of Cambodian people.

Statues of Pol Pot

Bear in-mind that a massive relocation operation was underway with the restructuring of society from bottom to top. At the time Cambodia had a population of around 8 million but had suffered blanket-bombing from the Americans, as well as US soldiers invading on the ground, not to mention the internecine fighting between the various factions and the civil war between the Royal Cambodian Army and the Khmer Rouge. Pol Pot had estimated that about 1% or 2% of the population (around 140,000 people) were collaboratng with foreign forces or could not be trusted. A sharp decline in the population is registered for the time of the Khmer Rouge control, but this is recording demographic changes from around 1970-1975 that become statistically observable (as a drop in population) from 1975-1980 – although usually a far longer time-span is required to register these alterations. Although demographic changes are never immediately observable, the Western world deliberately interprets the population drop in Cambodia for 1970-1975 (when the US attacked Cambodia but the Khmer Rouge were not in power), for the time period 1975-1980 – the time-period that the Khmer Rouge were in power. This is statistical deception and dishonesty. It is my opinion that the Khmer Rouge did not possess the ideological motivation, the man-power or the material means to perpetuate a massacre of any kind.  

Chinese Language Reference: 

https://baike.baidu.com/item/波尔布特

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